Abstract
-- This project collects various initiation models
of debris flow caused by rains, compares the differences among the
models, discusses the suitability of models, and then proposes an
improved model for the use of debris-flow occurrence warning. The
common rainfall parameters used in rainfall R and previous accumulated
rainfall P. Based on the four rainfall parameters, debris-flow occurrence
warning models debris-flow warning models are rainfall intensity
I, rainfall duration T, accumulated could be classified into five
categories: I-R model, I-T model, R-T model, I-P model and others.
It has been found that there is inconsistent in defining a rainfall
event used to analyze debris-flow initiation. There are about four
difference definitions of a rainfall event used by previous debris-flow
investigators. The four kinds of rainfall-event definitions have
been applied to analyze the rainfall parameters. The results show
that different rainfall-event definitions would result different
rainfall parameters, and their differences are very large. The project
proposed another two methods to define a rainfall event that would
be suitable for analyzing debris-flow initiation. The rainfall parameters
obtained by the proposed method are also compared with that obtained
by the present method used by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau
(SWCB), Council of Agriculture. It is also found that the total
accumulated rainfall calculated by days is close to that obtained
by the present proposed two methods and by the SWCB method. This
project also proposes a probability-based debris flow rainfall warning
model that would be very useful in drawing warning levels of debris
flow occurrence.
|